The academic backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors

Background: Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades. Methods: Data from five cohort studies were available: the Westminster Study (began clinical studies from 1975 to 1982), the 1980, 1985, and 1990 cohort studies (entered medical school in 1981, 1986, and 1991), and the University College London Medical School (UCLMS) Cohort Study (entered clinical studies in 2005 and 2006). Different studies had different outcome measures, but most had performance on basic medical sciences and clinical examinations at medical school, performance in Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations, and being on the General Medical Council Specialist Register. Results: Correlation matrices and path analyses are presented. There were robust correlations across different years at medical school, and medical school performance also predicted MRCP(UK) performance and being on the GMC Specialist Register. A-levels correlated somewhat less with undergraduate and post-graduate performance, but there was restriction of range in entrants. General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)/O-level results also predicted undergraduate and post-graduate outcomes, but less so than did A-level results, but there may be incremental validity for clinical and post-graduate performance. The AH5 had some significant correlations with outcome, but they were inconsistent. Sex and ethnicity also had predictive effects on measures of educational attainment, undergraduate, and post-graduate performance. Women performed better in assessments but were less likely to be on the Specialist Register. Non-white participants generally underperformed in undergraduate and post-graduate assessments, but were equally likely to be on the Specialist Register. There was a suggestion of smaller ethnicity effects in earlier studies. Conclusions: The existence of the Academic Backbone concept is strongly supported, with attainment at secondary school predicting performance in undergraduate and post-graduate medical assessments, and the effects spanning many years. The Academic Backbone is conceptualized in terms of the development of more sophisticated underlying structures of knowledge ('cognitive capital’ and 'medical capital’). The Academic Backbone provides strong support for using measures of educational attainment, particularly A-levels, in student selection

Assessment timing: student preferences and its impact on performance

Students on a first year undergraduate economics module were given the choice of when to sit their first assessment in the subject in order to determine both preferences over assessment timing, and the impact of timing on performance. Clear preferences of having this option were shown (only 2% of students stated to be indifferent) with those more comfortable and engaged in the module electing to take an earlier sitting of the assessment. Those who took the early test performed better on average compared to those who took it later, however, after controlling for attendance, there was no statistical link. There was, however, evidence that a later first assessment caused lower attendance and moreover, evidence of a legacy effect of this timing where the out-performance of the early cohort grew over later tests, which all students took at the same time

Austerity versus stimulus: the polarizing effect of fiscal policy

Through constructing a New-Keynesian DSGE model with heterogeneous agents, this paper investigates both the aggregate and distributional consequences of fiscal policy. Polarized preferences over the conduct of fiscal policy emerge between those agents who participate in credit markets and those who do not. Exogenous shocks impact the two types of agent differently, and, as a result, fiscal policy responses to these shocks produce minimal aggregate welfare effects as the gains of one agent are matched by the losses of another. There is, therefore, a normative justication for countercyclical fiscal policy, but on redistributive rather than stabilisation grounds

Fiscal trade-offs: the relationship between output and debt in policy interventions

Implicit in fiscal policy debates is that there is a trade-off between output and debt outcomes; stimulus is at the expense of debt, and austerity at the expense of output. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates this trade-off through analysing the relationship between traditional output multipliers and ‘debt multipliers’ (the impact of policy on government debt). Theoretically the elasticity between the two is the marginal tax rate from movements of output in response to policy. This leads to two further hypotheses: first, if the marginal tax rate in the private sector is higher than that in the public sector, changes in government spending will result in a larger impact on debt than changes in taxes; and second, ‘fiscal free lunches’ are possible with recent estimates of the output multiplier. Indeed, empirically we find that tax revenues increase from exogenous tax cuts when the response of output is high

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

United States Nuclear Export Controls

This article will explore the U.S. nuclear export controls regime. It will initially discuss controls affecting the export of nuclear material, facilities, and specially designed components of nuclear facilities. This section will specifically consider export licensing procedures and requirements, agreements for nuclear cooperation, the specific export criteria for major nuclear cooperation, as well as the necessary policy determination. Then the Article will discuss the procedures and requirements for obtaining a license to export dual-use equipment, the authorization necessary for the export of nuclear technology and the subsequent arrangement process, which further aids in the implementation of U.S. non-proliferation policies

Trends in long-term prescribing of dependence forming medicines

Using patient-level primary care data to estimate the extent to which antidepressant medicines are prescribed to people continuously for long periods of time. Aim This descriptive research used patient-level primary care data to estimate the extent to which antidepressant medicines are prescribed to people continuously for long periods of time. The study also drew on survey data and data on the number of prescriptions dispensed. Findings - The number of antidepressant prescriptions dispensed each year in England doubled between 2008 and 2018 - Survey data show that the proportion of adults reporting use of antidepressants in the past year increased in the 1990s, and again between 2007 and 2014 - The average length of time that antidepressants are continuously prescribed to people for has increased over time. - Some types of antidepressants (for example, tricyclics and other antidepressants) tend to be prescribed for longer periods than other types (such as SSRIs). - In 2014, one in twelve prescribing periods for tricyclics and other antidepressants lasted for three years or more Methods The analyses in this report are descriptive and show the overall prevalence of long-term prescribing in each year. We used a sample of around 50,000 patients prescribed at least one antidepressant medicine between 2000 and 2017. This was drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The CPRD contains data about prescriptions issued by GPs (including the length and size of prescription) and characteristics of the patients prescribed to (such as their age, sex, and area where they live). Medicines were grouped for analysis into: tricyclics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and other ADMs. The length of individual prescriptions and continuous prescribing periods were derived using information on consultation dates, the quantity of tablets prescribed, and the numeric daily dose

Mental Health and Wellbeing in England: the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2014

This report presents findings of a survey of mental illness and wellbeing among people aged 16 and over living in private households in England. The survey was commissioned by NHS Digital and funded by the Department of Health, and is the fourth in a series of surveys of adult mental health